Analysis & Prediction

John McCain and Barack Obama.

America can expect to see these names on the ballot this November for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. Following the most recent primaries, a number of superdelegates and prominent Clinton supporters switched sides to support Obama. This is a clear indication that Clinton is slowing losing her ground as a viable presidential nominee. I believe it will take many more of her prominent supporters to switch sides before she will concede the nomination to Obama before the democratic convention this August.

John McCain still has a lot of ground to make up. According to the latest figures from the Federal Election Committee, McCain only has $11,579,714 available cash on hand, while Obama has $51,074,000 available cash on hand.

The next key step for each candidate will be choosing their running mate for Vice President. The process each candidate goes through to determine their running mate will be the most important process between now and November, because the American people are voting for President and Vice President together. The presidential candidate who has the best and most likable running mate will ultimately get the coveted votes of many Americans in November.

Domestic Policy

Domestic policy is the overwhelming political theme this year, even though our country has been at war for six and a half years. Initially, many of the presidential candidates were foot stomping the two wars. They quickly moved to discuss the economy following many polls that indicated American’s are more concerned with the economy and domestic policy.

Last week an additional domestic policy issue was in the spotlight; gasoline taxes. Each candidate has distinct differences on this stance, but it still comes down to what the American people want. Do we want a gas tax holiday, flat gas tax, or a temporary suspension on gas tax? Obama’s idea is to use a windfall profits tax on oil companies to help low-income families pay their energy bills, while both Clinton and McCain would opt for a variation of a gas tax holiday. Obama recently labeled Clinton’s idea as a “political scheme” that would save the average driver $25 to $28. However, Obama voted for a similar bill in 2000 when he was in the Illinois legislature, but now claims the lessons of that Illinois tax holiday influenced his decision to oppose a national tax holiday.

Ad Information

This morning’s campaign news was flooded with results from yesterday’s primary results in North Carolina and Indiana. Additionally, many political analysts and pundits argued why Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race. During a news conference she gave this morning while in West Virginia, she continued to defend her reasons for staying in the race.

There are two things she said this morning that are clearly false. First of which, she said her husband didn’t have the democratic nomination wrapped up until the middle of June in 1992. False! Former President Bill Clinton swept nearly all of the Super Tuesday primaries and was the presumptive democratic nominee in 1992 after winning the New York primary in early April. Secondly, she also said that if the democratic nomination process was like the republican nomination process, she would be the clear front-runner. Also false! Clinton would only have a narrow lead over Obama, and this race would seemingly never end.

Upon entering any competition, one must understand the rules that govern the competition and abide by them. Clinton’s campaign has been advertising numerous false statements and counting delegates that don’t exist, such as the Florida and Michigan delegates.

Political Media Coverage

The political media coverage during the first three months was energetic and fun. There was a new political fervor throughout the country that made the headline news at the water cooler. People were openly talking about their political views, which was a major shift in the American socio-behavior. Although politics was openly discussed prior to this election campaign; the political media coverage has exploded with open debate and people are freely discussing their views.

Coming into the year, Americans assumed we would have a republican and democratic presumptive nominee wrapped up by the end of March. On March 4, 2008 we were halfway there when former Governor Mike Huckabee officially dropped out of the race, which made Senator John McCain the presumptive republican presidential nominee.

Today, the political media coverage is full throttle, with Senators Obama and Clinton still going head-to-head in each primary. The news media outlets continue to broadcast 24/7 news on a campaign trail that seemingly has no end. The longer this campaign continues to flood the media, the more damaging it is for the Democratic Party. The Democratic National Convention can not come soon enough.

Campaign Finance

It is a necessary evil. No candidate enjoys asking constituents for money, although some enjoy the process more than others. Incumbents usually have the advantage in raising funds, and opposing candidates face an uphill battle with the odds heavily stacked against them. Bottom line is that a candidate needs money to advertise and reach out to registered voters. Following that logic, one would think the candidate with the most money is better suited to be elected.

With that said, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District race might as well be over! According to the Center for Responsive Politics, as of April 23, 2008, incumbent Lee Terry (R) has raised $718,531 with $497,492 cash on hand. Democratic candidate Jim Esch has raised a total of $34,171 with $27,693 cash on hand and Richard Carter (D), the other democratic candidate, has reportedly raised $0!

In 2006, Esch won 45 percent of the vote against Terry in the general election despite limited campaign funds. Two years later, his name is still fresh in the eyes of many voters and is primed to face Terry again come November…albeit with the same outcome as 2006 unless something dramatic happens.